Market Rallyage

Well, the stock market is holding its highs and there doesn’t seem to be much in the way. Despite what spinsters say, lowering interest rates means good market performance… In fact, everything’s rallying. Oil, metals, stocks… Does that make sense to have all these supposedly inversely-related markets all going up? Is something big about to happen? Are we really heading towards deflation?

I bought some Nintendo (NTDOY/NTDOY.PK) at 18.35. I wish I had more money to throw at it. Nintendo raised its dividend, as well as its earnings estimates. Not only does Nintendo have sound financials, but I also think it’s going to take gaming by storm in the next few years. Apparently, as of the latest numbers, 6 out of the top 10 games sold in Japan are Nintendo DS games. Hand-held games beating consoles! Huh! And Microsoft is floundering over there.

Since I’m in Montreal right now, I went and checked out Tim Hortons with Julie. Tim Hortons just IPO’d (symbol: THI), selling off a bit but perhaps starting to rally now. Obviously this stock is going to grow a lot over time. Chipotle (CMG) has been doing pretty well since its own IPO. Anyway, I thought Tim Hortons was kind of ordinary, and had an ordinary logo, although conventional wisdom says that it’s a very successful brand. It’s not quite as goofy as Jamba Juice and Krispy Kreme and not as catchy-cool as Starbucks. It offers not only donuts and pastries but also sandwiches for lunch. The donuts were good, not as sugary and fatty-tasting as Krispy Kreme’s. But I can’t help but think the Dunkin Donuts right by Julie’s house isn’t better.

The thing Tim Hortons seems to have going for it is great placement. Their stores seem to be ubiquitous in Montreal. Everywhere you might want to get something to eat or coffee to drink, there’s a Tim Hortons. This is quite similar to the strategy of McDonalds and Walmart. They must use some heavy GIS analysis shit.

According to Wikipedia’s summary, Tim Hortons has 75% of the coffee market and about 23% of the fast-food market. These are huge numbers.

I’d expect THI to do pretty well.

Finally, the stocks I watch are breaking downtrends. I don’t know if this means boomage to new highs or just some consolidation, but when the stocks I watch start moving up again, I have a lot more confidence in continuing rallies.

That said, I’m still all cash in my retirement accounts.